gotta crystal ball? ivy preseason notes

back in mid-autumn, before the season tipped off, the lions were the consensus ivy league third place squad.  they were expected to trail princeton and defending champion harvard.   as the league prepares to tip off at last, that prognostication seems not unreasonable.  the non-league portion of their schedule has provided moments of great encouragement as well as sorry disappointments.  the victory over villanova no doubt marked the high point while losses to bucknell and elon defined the lows.  regardless of our elation or sorrow, the battles to date have been marked by the emergence of two important contributors among the first years – guards grant mullins and maodoh lo, the welcome return of three point ace steve frankoski, the encouraging growth of forward alex rosenberg and the solid play of senior leaders mark cisco and brian barbour.  as all these players are by now familiar to subscribers,  we’ll take a quick trip around the league,  in the very order the blue will, to familiarize ourselves with some of the fellows who’ll be making lion lives difficult over the next two months.

first battle will unfold  in lovely ithaca.  last year the big red and the lions were absolute equals, splitting their two games by a combined score of 121 -121.  based on comparable head to head contests so far, they look to  match up similarly this year, as both teams have downed colgate and american.  cornell’s  stars are forward shonn miller and guard jonathan gray who together provide 18 plus ppg.  they’re abetted by two other forwards (messrs errick peck and eitan chemerinski) and a pair of guards (nolan cressler and devin cherry) who contribute another 28 points.  they lack a stud at center, as they did last year when cisco scored 18 and grabbed a columbia record 20 boards against them at levien.  mr. c. recorded a second, if more modest, double double at cornell, but that slight drop off in production at the lion’s  five spot was enough for the big red to prevail at home, 65 – 60.  the lions need to take two from cornell this year, if they expect to step into the upper tier of the league.  the central new york tangle on january 19 could very well set the tone for the lions’ overall league performance.

after cornell visits levien on the 26th, columbia travels to take on the killer p’s.  the quakers are up first.  last year they dropped the lions twice, by two points in new york and by the same minuscule margin at the palestra.  those very narrow losses were among the season’s most bitter pills.  as penn has graduated its great guard tandem of tyler bernadini and zach rosen, they appear more vulnerable this year.  that conclusion is mirrored by their poor, 2-11  non-league record.   that record though came against a schedule a bit tougher than the lions’ and that included last year’s tourney bubble squad, drexel as well as patriot league champ lehigh, the big ten’s penn state and villanova’ s wild cats.  they rely on 6′ 8″ forward fran dougherty for 15 points and 8 boards a game while miles cartwright contributes an additional 14 ppg.  that makes for an inside-outside combination that will test the blue defense.   last year, the lions started slowly in both games before rallying furiously to  close losses.  the philadelphians must be beaten at least once this go round if the lions are to assume their rightful place in the league.

the first saturday in february will find the lions at jadwin gymnasium facing the imperial tigers of princeton.  though only 7-7 to date, their resume includes wins over elon and bucknell both of whom dropped the lions as well as a league opening triumph over penn.  they’re led by senior forward ian hummer who will be a strong ivy league player of the year candidate.  last season, the lions held him to only 11 points at levien.  despite 25 points from brian barbour and another cisco double-double, hummer’s teammates rallied in the second half behind 12 points and 6 steals from t.j. bray to record a 62 -58 win.  at home, the tigers easily handled the blue 77 -66.  they always play aggressive man to man and will undoubtedly move the ball more effectively as they mature.  columbia has to hold on to the ball much more carefully this season than last if they expect to split with the league’s other big cats.

dartmouth arrives at levien on friday, february eighth.  they have struggled to date and were dominated by both elon and colgate.  on comparative match ups, the blue is better so far and columbia won both their tangles last year, though the battle in hanover was very tight ending 64-62.  paul cormier’s crew is led by gabe maldunas and alex miller who cash 10 points apiece per game.  jvonte brooks, who averages 7 ppg, lit up the lions, however, to the tune of 17 in each contest last year.  the blue needs to keep number 33 in sight this season or they might split with the hanoverians when a sweep is devoutly to be wished.  i personally look forward to the visit of big green first year point guard malik gil who i scouted last year up at mount st. michael’s in the bronx.  as a high school senior, gil was a 5′ 9″ giant.  in division I play, he is learning just how steeply the competitive pyramid inclines.  i hope some smoggy new york city air brings out the best in the kid and that he plays great in a loss.

what might be the biggest game of the season on morningside heights tips off the next night as the cantabs, without jeremy lin and his crew this time, i expect, arrive at levien.  harvard lacks keith wright, their manchild in the middle, who has graduated,  as well as brandyn curry and keith casey who have succumbed to the kind of academic peccadillo that no doubt mars many a crimson transcript.  tommy amaker, however, is nothing if not a solid recruiter and his big catch of last year, forward wesley saunders, along with this year’s best, guard siyani chambers  have stepped up to lead the crimson to an 8 -5 mark to date.  the underclassmen are aided by the junior from quebec monsieur laurent rivard, who  provides veteran steadiness and accurate three point shooting.  they won 4 of their last 5 non-league games falling only to west coast power st. mary’s by a single point.  as they have an rpi of 84 and a strength of schedule ranking of 78, the john harvards look the ivy team to beat.  and yet, the lions should have a shot at splitting the series with the defending champeens.  last year they outplayed them up in cambridge and if the morally bankrupt refs had not handed the home team 24 more free throws than the visiting lions, the blue might well have prevailed.  messr rosenberg is going to have to do a job against saunders and the guards will have to contain chambers while also being aware of rivard’s whereabouts on the perimeter.  should the lions play well inside and out, the cantabs can be had, at least once.

our heroes travel to providence the following friday, to complete their first tour of the league.  brown plays perhaps the shortest bench in the league, with 50 plus points coming from their first five and only 13 from the subs.  first among the starting five, as far as the lions must be concerned, is guard sean mcgonagill.  messr mcgonagill torched the lions for 39 when he was a frosh and dropped 28 on the boys last year.  both of those explosions came up in rhode island.  he has labored less successfully at levien.  long story short, the squads split last year and though the lions’ greater depth points to a sweep this time around they have to shut down mcgonagill twice to make that happen.  of all the ancient eight, the browns match up most closely with the blue in rpi rankings, with the rhode islanders at 228 to the lions 233.  that reeks of a series split and the lions  really need both wins to move up.

any one off put by the lions 34 point beat down of div iii haverford back in november should check out the stats of yale’s two wins over smaller opponents.  early on, they dropped mighty albertus magnus by 35 and on january 8 positively beat the crap out of oberlin, downing the ohioans by 65.  frankly, i expected more gentlemanly behavior from a crew coached by the very tough but always stylish james jones whose charges have humbled the lions five straight times over the last three seasons.  last february the eli visited levien featuring the best big man in the league, greg mangano.  the lions were coming off their best league performance of the season,  having buried brown the night before with a barrage of treys.  the first half against the white clad visitors (one down side of the ivy league friday-saturday night schedules is the laundry problem for travelers) featured more of the same as the lions raced out to a big lead while shutting down mangano.  damn my eyes, but the second half was one big lion swoon, as the blue gave up a double digit lead in a sloppy display that featured 21 turnovers and ended with reggie wilhite’s last layup as time expired.  the killing 58-59 loss started a string of six straight failures for columbia that culminated in a 4 -10 league mark.  mangano and wilhite are now gone.  we trust that the lions still smart from that mid-winter disaster and will repay the haughty elis in full.

as a rule, league games are tightly fought.  last year columbia lost 4 contests by a total of 9 points.  one more made three point shot per game and the team would have been 8 -6 rather than 4 – 10.  that gives you some idea of how slight the difference between success and mediocrity in the ivies.  since two of those four might have been w’s were home court losses that featured the evaporation of sizable lion leads, clearly the blue must impeccably defend its home hardwood this season if they are to improve.  hope that coach smith has been looking at game tape.  the season begins saturday.  go lions!  a tourney berth is not beyond imagining.

peace out and d up, paulie b