time for underrated lions to make their own luck

last march when the columbia lions men’s five finished its third consecutive 5 – 9 league campaign, allgame was left with a profound sense of what might have been rather than one of nauseous deja vu. the penultimate weekend road sweep of brown and yale had confirmed our growing belief that the light blue could play with, and whip, anyone in the ancient eight. indeed, an early one point loss road loss to cornell, two point loss to brown at levien and a pair of heartbreakingly hard two point losses (one in triple ot at cambridge and the other in a single extra period at levien) to imperial harvard were all that stood between coach engles’s crew and the league post-season tourney. paulie b’s upbeat take on their exuberantly gritty play down the stretch was mirrored by players and staff at the team banquet on march 26. none of us could wait for the first jump ball of 2019 -2020.

beyond that late season run of success, our faith in the future was buttressed by the return of virtually the entire squad. the departure of quinton adlesh, one of three graduating seniors, was likely the biggest hit to team stats and culture, but fully 79% of the lion attack will be back in uniform come november 2019. only harvard, which returns 90% of its points, is more front loaded with scoring. the lions ought to be ready to rock.

consider our dismay, then, when various prognosticators tabbed columbia for sixth place in league play – a paltry single rung up on last year’s league ladder. had paulie b imbibed too deeply of coach engles’s banquet cool aid or am i merely too smitten with this crew’s persona to see its relative athletic worth? following are some reflections on lion personnel and bold name ivy opponents as we try to argue for a higher valuation of our heroes.

part of the short sellers’ rationale regarding the lions’ promise, no doubt, is the absence of guard (and designated clutch shooter) gabe stefanini – an early autumn scratch due to foot surgery. the junior from bologna, out indefinitely, had assumed command of the lion point last december subsequent to mike smith’s knee injury and promptly led the ivies in assists (4.1 nightly) while scoring 13.8 ppg and snagging 5 1/2 boards. that’s a significant bucket of stats and most squads would be sorely pressed to refashion their offense a few weeks before jump street.

happily, in the rehabbed mike smith, columbia regains one of the league’s best point guards. the dynamic chicagoan can get to the rim against most defenders and was showing off an improved three point shot last season before going down against bryant with a torn meniscus. his return means columbia will be substituting one second team all ivy athlete for another. smith will be complemented in the front court by patrick tape. the 6′ 10″ north carolinian is the lions’ best defender and was rapidly improving on offense as last year wound down. we think only penn’s a.j. brodeur a superior center to messr tape in the ivies, though harvard’s chris lewis and princeton’s richard ariguzoh might disagree. with the point and center well under control on morningside heights, our concern needs must turn to the rest of the rotation. the two, three and four spots will be manned by combinations of 6’3″ junior tai bibbs, 6’5″ soph maka ellis, 6’5″ senior jake killingworth, 6’6″ junior randy brumant and 6’8″ sophomore ike nweke. nweke is strictly a power forward. we expect the rest of the aforementioned quintet, who can all play guard or small forward, will be mixed and matched all season by coach engles. how quickly the incoming first years (6’2″ eddie turner iii, 6’5″ jack forest, 6’6″ cameron shockley-okeke, 6’6″ asa shannon and 6’8 emmanuel onuama) fit in with the returning core will depend on understanding their defensive obligations.

indeed, a lions visit to lavietes pavillion come march for the 2020 ivy league tournament will hinge, finally, on improved defense across the team. last year, the lions averaged 70.5 ppg, good enough for third place offensively in the ivies. unfortunately they gave up 73.5 points nightly – worst in the league by a full bucket per game and their – 3.0 ppg deficit was better only than last place dartmouth which lost by an average of 4 points per game. depending on how you count, the light blue has to prevent one made three pointer per game or two layups or give opponents four fewer free throws nightly. those goals are not so easily achievable as they sound. all require a team wide commitment to constantly alert, helping defense. i think the current edition of the lions has the length to be difficult to score against, if they defend with their feet rather than their hands. defenders have to be on the move, pursuing shooters around the perimeter and harassing them in the paint for forty minutes. last season, it sometimes seemed they played d for 28 seconds of the shot clock. those last two seconds can render the rest of a half minute’s work worthless.

when signor stefanini was healthy, i was convinced the lions would be one of the important contenders for an ivy tournament berth. indeed, i thought them a legit number three or four in the league and, with the right breaks, a dark horse for the regular season title. with the italian perhaps sidelined for the ancient eight campaign, their task becomes more difficult but i still don’t understand how less informed bloggers figure them a sixth place squad in a not terrific, to my eyes, league. only harvard, which returns the incandescent scoring guard bryce aiken (murderer of columbia in two battles last year) who will be rejoined by the now healthy former ivy player of the year seth towns and the penn quakers who feature the aforementioned, terrifically formidable, center a. j. brodeur and his returning back court complement, ryan betley strike me as somewhat stronger inside and out than columbia. princeton was the only league member to whip columbia twice last season. the tigers return four important contributors in guards jaelin llewellyn and ryan schwieger along with big men jerome derossiers and rich ariguzoh but they graduated myles stephens who was the match up nightmare for columbia in the ivies. i think the lions can pick up a win against the south jerseyans, but mitch henderson’s boys led the league in defense last year and will again be a tough nut to crack. defending champeen yale, however, must replace fully 52% of last season’s ivy leading offense. the elis’s coach, james jones, is one of the slickest killers around but he lost his two most important scorers in (now utah jazz) forward miye oni and guard alex copeland. additionally, coach jones lost trey phills (now in the nba g league) from the back court and steady blake reynolds up front. the elis’s skipper will have to get terrific defense and rebounding from forward jordan bruner – a bruising power forward- and center paul atkinson who has been very much now you see him, now you don’t in his first two campaigns with the elis. over the last decade, mr. jones has established a dependable pipeline of performers in new haven and probably has a couple of previously unheralded upper classmen ready to step up, but the lions should be a challenge for whatever rotation the bulldog skipper has settled on come league play. brown has been dependably pestilential under the stewardship of coach mike martin who conveys his own relentless combativeness to his charges. but martin lost his most dynamic scorer, desmond cambridge, to transfer and perhaps his toughest defender, obi okolie to graduation. forward tamenang choh will continue to torment the lions along with the rest of the league, but i don’t think the bruins will match last year’s 7 – 7 ivy record.

columbia has been one of the statistically hard luck teams in div 1 hoops over the first three years of coach engles’s leadership, regularly losing more close games than closing them out. these underachievements have started in the non-conference portion of the schedule. army, hofstra, navy and albany edged the light blue in 2016. likewise, they fell short in tough losses to uconn, albany (again), quinnipiac, colgate and navy (again) in 2017 while they failed close against marist, fordham, delaware, colgate (again) and rutgers in 2018. those losses haunt young athletes, in particular. non-conference play establishes a team’s identity. come january, the lions need to have had some important success in order to know how to close out the tough fights for absolutely necessary league victories. straight talk for our last take – noone in the ivies is terrifyingly good. there are two lesser teams – cornell and dartmouth. the six other crews will likely battle all season for the four spots in cambridge. the lions’ route is plain: sweep cornell and dartmouth, split with everyone else and they should be 9 – 5 and tourney bound. coach engles’s first big chance for significant ivy success has arrived. he ought not let it slip away. these lions have to turn a page and make their own luck.

peace out and d up,

paulie b

peace out and d up,

paulie b